File:A dynamic model for political stakeholders - forecasting the actions and relationships of Lebanese Hizbullah with Markov decision processes (IA adynamicmodelfor109455296).pdf
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Summary[edit]
A dynamic model for political stakeholders : forecasting the actions and relationships of Lebanese Hizbullah with Markov decision processes ( ) | ||
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Author |
Burciaga, Aaron D. |
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Title |
A dynamic model for political stakeholders : forecasting the actions and relationships of Lebanese Hizbullah with Markov decision processes |
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Publisher |
Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School |
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Description |
This thesis develops a decision theoretic model rooted in Markov decision process theory to provide military and diplomacy decision makers with insights regarding the interests and potential strategies of Lebanese Hizbullah. State trees are used to capture the interests and actions of Lebanese Hizbullah and other relevant countries, political organizations or group. These state trees are used to design an influence diagram that maps the interdependencies of all interests, actions and players. A Visual Basic for Applications tool was developed for the user to generate the sets of data necessary to populate and solve the model's influence diagram. The actions and interests of Lebanese Hizbullah, over time, in the influence diagram constitute a dynamic Bayesian network. At each stage of this dynamic process, Lebanese Hizbullah is characterized by a state and a set of feasible actions that, depending on the actions taken, determine the transition into a new state of the system. This dynamic dependency-bearing model identifies the most important interests, priorities, and capabilities of Lebanese Hizbullah. The resulting assessment of Lebanese Hizbullah's influence, investment, capabilities, and actions reveal key cause-and-effect relations. The utility of such insights may enable decision makers to determine material variables and best courses of action to enhance their strategic decision-making capabilities. Subjects: Hidden Markov models; Decision making; Interest |
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Language | English | |
Publication date | June 2010 | |
Current location |
IA Collections: navalpostgraduateschoollibrary; fedlink |
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Accession number |
adynamicmodelfor109455296 |
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Source | ||
Permission (Reusing this file) |
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. As such, it is in the public domain, and under the provisions of Title 17, United States Code, Section 105, may not be copyrighted. |
Licensing[edit]
Public domainPublic domainfalsefalse |
This work is in the public domain in the United States because it is a work prepared by an officer or employee of the United States Government as part of that person’s official duties under the terms of Title 17, Chapter 1, Section 105 of the US Code.
Note: This only applies to original works of the Federal Government and not to the work of any individual U.S. state, territory, commonwealth, county, municipality, or any other subdivision. This template also does not apply to postage stamp designs published by the United States Postal Service since 1978. (See § 313.6(C)(1) of Compendium of U.S. Copyright Office Practices). It also does not apply to certain US coins; see The US Mint Terms of Use.
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This file has been identified as being free of known restrictions under copyright law, including all related and neighboring rights. |
https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/mark/1.0/PDMCreative Commons Public Domain Mark 1.0falsefalse
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current | 01:12, 14 July 2020 | 1,275 × 1,650, 96 pages (1.12 MB) | Fæ (talk | contribs) | FEDLINK - United States Federal Collection adynamicmodelfor109455296 (User talk:Fæ/IA books#Fork8) (batch 1993-2020 #5643) |
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Author | silva |
Software used | PScript5.dll Version 5.2 |
File change date and time | 01:59, 16 June 2010 |
Date and time of digitizing | 01:59, 16 June 2010 |
Conversion program | Acrobat Distiller 8.2.2 (Windows) |
Encrypted | no |
Page size | 612 x 792 pts (letter) |
Version of PDF format | 1.4 |