File:Temperature reconstruction last two millennia.svg
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DescriptionTemperature reconstruction last two millennia.svg |
English: Temperatures with respect to the 1850–1900 mean over the last 2 millennia (blue) and observational estimates ranging from 1850 to 2020 (black). The shaded region contains the 68% confidence interval. The temperature anomalies are from the 2019 Nature Geoscience paper by the Pages2k Consortium.[1] using a wide set of proxies that have been vetted by the same consortium.[2] They include tree ring data, data from corals and ice core data.
The confidence interval incorporates two sources of uncertainty. The first one derives from the the method of translating information in the proxies into temperatures. Seven different peer-reviewed methods are employed and all considered equally likely in the figure. The methods range from a simple linear method where proxies sensitivities are fitted to the observational to determine past temperature, to more complicated methods in which information about spatial patterns is taken into account, or information about natural forcing is taken into account. The second type of uncertainty is in the selection of proxies. Some proxies might not be entirely reliable and their inclusion might slightly bias the reconstruction. By randomly selecting a subset of proxies, this uncertainty can be quantified. Code to create the figure is adapted from the Nature Geosciences paper[1] and can be found on https://figshare.com/collections/Global_mean_temperature_reconstructions_over_the_Common_Era/4507043. The figure is a simplification of Fig 1a from this paper. Individual reconstruction methods are not shown. The observational data is HadCRUT5, plotted with a ten-year running mean.[3] references
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Date | |
Source | Own work |
Author | Femke Nijsse |
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current | 17:37, 3 April 2023 | 485 × 325 (134 KB) | Aspere (talk | contribs) | File uploaded using svgtranslate tool (https://svgtranslate.toolforge.org/). Added translation for ko. | |
10:18, 10 September 2022 | 485 × 325 (133 KB) | Theklan (talk | contribs) | File uploaded using svgtranslate tool (https://svgtranslate.toolforge.org/). Added translation for eu. | ||
04:13, 9 January 2022 | 485 × 325 (132 KB) | TAKAHASHI Shuuji (talk | contribs) | File uploaded using svgtranslate tool (https://svgtranslate.toolforge.org/). Added translation for ja. | ||
11:51, 17 December 2021 | 485 × 325 (131 KB) | Gabriel Kielland (talk | contribs) | File uploaded using svgtranslate tool (https://svgtranslate.toolforge.org/). Added translation for nb. | ||
22:05, 14 December 2021 | 485 × 325 (128 KB) | RCraig09 (talk | contribs) | 14 Dec 2021: per Talk page, nudging "Observed" to the right and anchoring at end of text so long-word translations will expand from right to left and not intersect the graph trace. | ||
19:47, 7 December 2021 | 485 × 325 (128 KB) | Chidgk1 (talk | contribs) | File uploaded using svgtranslate tool (https://svgtranslate.toolforge.org/). Added translation for tr. | ||
15:19, 7 December 2021 | 485 × 325 (124 KB) | GoEThe (talk | contribs) | File uploaded using svgtranslate tool (https://svgtranslate.toolforge.org/). Added translation for pt. | ||
16:44, 3 December 2021 | 485 × 325 (121 KB) | Femke (talk | contribs) | File uploaded using svgtranslate tool (https://svgtranslate.toolforge.org/). Added translation for nl. | ||
16:42, 3 December 2021 | 485 × 325 (121 KB) | Femke (talk | contribs) | File uploaded using svgtranslate tool (https://svgtranslate.toolforge.org/). Added translation for es. | ||
16:33, 3 December 2021 | 485 × 325 (122 KB) | Femke (talk | contribs) | Allow more space for translations |
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- File:2,000- and 139-year global average temperature.png
- File:2000 Year Temperature Comparison.png
- File:20200320 ~140 and ~2000 year global average temperature charts (full speed).webm
- File:800,000-, 2,000-, 139-year global average temperature.png
- File:Reconstrucción de las temperaturas de los dos últimos milenios.svg
- Category:Paleoclimatology
- Category:Proxy (climate)
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