File:Statistical bias and statistical noise illustration.png
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A target-analogy illustration of statistical bias (b), statistical noise (c), both (d) and none (accuracy; a). Adapted from Kahneman, Sibony & Sunstein (2021).
Summary[edit]
| Description |
English: The targets and shots in this figure illustrate the difference between statistical bias and statistical noise and how these concepts relate to statistical error. The shots on target b) are biased, because the shots are systematically off in one direction (down to the right from the bullseye). On average, there is an error. Target c) on the other hand does not have a mean error, because the imprecision in each shot in relation to the bullseye cancel each other out. So there is no bias – but there is more noise, because the shots there differ much from each other. The shots on target a) are precise; there is no bias and very little noise. Target d) has it worst, since it suffers from both bias and noise. A final observation here is that if there were no targets, it would be impossible to say that the a) or b) shots are biased, since there would be no true value (the bullseye) to compare them to, but it would still be obvious that the c) and d) shots are noisy. (Adapted from Kahneman, D., Sibony, O. & Sunstein, C. (2021). Noise: A flaw in human judgment. New York: Little, Brown Spark. ISBN 978-0-00-830899-5. OCLC 1242782025.)
Svenska: Måltavlorna och skotten i denna figur illustrerar skillnaden mellan statistisk bias och statistiskt brus och hur dessa koncept förhåller sig till statistiskt fel. Skotten på måltavla b) har bias, för skotten har en systematisk förskjutning i en riktning (ner till höger från bullseye). I genomsnitt finns det ett statistiskt fel. Måltavla c) däremot har inget statistiskt fel i medelvärde, eftersom varje skotts förskjutning i förhållande till bullseye tar ut varandra. Så tavlan har ingen bias – men den har mer brus, för skotten där skiljer sig mycket åt från varandra. Skotten på måltavla a) är träffsäkra; där finns ingen bias och väldigt lite brus. Måltavla d) har det värst, eftersom den lider av både bias och brus. En sista observation här är att om det inte fanns några måltavlor så skulle det vara omöjligt att säga att a)- och b)-skotten har bias eller inte, eftersom det inte skulle finnas något sant värde (bullseye) att att jämföra dem mot, men det skulle fortfarande vara uppenbart att c)- och d)- skotten är brusiga. (Anpassad från Kahneman, D., Sibony, O. & Sunstein, C. (2021). Brus: Det osynliga felet som stör våra bedömningar – och vad du kan göra åt det. Stockholm: Volante. ISBN 978-91-7965-105-3) |
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| Source | Own work |
| Author | Tim Isaksson |
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